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Will China Win?

By Dr John Sydenham.

If China becomes the global superpower in 20 years time will that be a problem?   Most Westerners are unable to deal with this question because they deeply believe that the world should have a single "multicultural" culture (ie: a single, Western culture) and cannot imagine any other outcome. 

The Western sense of superiority means that its mass media are almost blind to the consequences of what is happening in China. 

The Economic Threat

The most important change is that China is now the biggest economy in the world.

The "PPP" indicator of GDP is used because China controls the value of the Renminbi.

China operates a mercantilist economy in which the objective is to acquire as much treasure from overseas as possible.  It is now the clear leader in global exports:

and has a gigantic trade surplus:

China's declared foreign exchange reserves are about $3.2 TRILLION. It puts a large proportion of its surplus foreign exchange reserves into state controlled offshore accounts.  This allows it to anonymously control Western corporations.  Much of the rest is used in its "Belt and Road" initiative which is used to control developing countries.  Western observers often lose sight of the fact that Chinese international trade is about power.

The Territorial Threat

China has claims over vast swathes of neighbouring territory:

Source: Lewis and Litai (2016)

If China occupies Taiwan and the South China Sea it will control global memory chip production and a sizeable proportion of the semiconductor chip industry.  This would rapidly cripple Western economic and military capability.  In a South China Sea conflict China would also prevent trade with S.Korea, Singapore and Japan.

Global semiconductor chip production

China is currently occupying the Spratly islands with military bases.  The Chinese claims to the South China Sea are reminiscent of the German demand for Lebensraum in the 1930s.  They are very substantial and potentially give China control of SE Asia.  Military bases are already being built by China on at least seven islands.

Overview of the probable “headquarters” island in the Spratly archipelago known as Fiery Cross Reef with its recently opened airstrip. In this satellite image taken on January 2, 2016, one can see a Chinese amphibious transport warship in the Fiery Cross anchorage. Image courtesy Jane’s and Airbus, © CNES 2016, Distribution Airbus DS/© 2016 IHS.

Chinese occupation of the Spratlys was made possible by the 1974 Battle of the Paracel Islands and subsequent conquest of the Paracel islands from Vietnam in 1974.  That the Spratly military bases have been established for offensive warfare in SE Asia has been made clear:  “The new Theater Commands will attack proactively once a war [breaks] out instead of passively waiting for defending [against] the enemy at home.” (China Military Online 2016).

Chinese claims are not limited to the South China Sea and include claims to territory in India and there are other claims along most of its borders.  The Chinese rhetoric is that they are a peaceful country whereas the reality is one of aggressive territorial claims on all fronts.

Chinese claims to India. Source: Al Jazeera.

China Represents the Extreme Far Left - Far Right

China demonstrates that the theory that capitalism and prosperity brings political freedom is false.  The alarm bells should have been ringing like air raid sirens when Xi Jinping became President for life in March 2018.

The recent Chinese Anti-Terrorist Act (2015) defines terrorism as: "Any advocacy or activity that, by means of violence, sabotage, or threat, aims to create social panic, undermine public safety, infringe on personal and property rights, or coerce a state organ or an international organization, in order to achieve political, ideological, or other objectives".  This means that anyone taking a political position on property use or who suggests industrial action or even has a petition to put pressure on communist party officials is at risk of becoming a terrorist.  The penalties for terrorism are draconian.  Tribunals order executions as a penalty for terrorism.

China is not alone in using anti-terrorist laws to impose State control, for example, the Saudis use anti-terrorist legislation to arrest and condemn atheists, but where China differs is in the methods used to impose that control.  The real problem confronting the Chinese is that they live in the first State to be controlled by Information Technology and AIs.  This is a terrifying development.

All internet traffic into and out of China is screened by the Great Firewall of China.  Google has been banned from China and the Chinese use a search platform called "Baidu". Enter "Tiananmen" into this search engine and you will probably still find the top article in English is "Tiananmen Massacre a Myth". Microsoft and Yahoo have Chinese operations that obey Chinese Internet Law.  Baidu forwards all searches to the security services.  Inside China the Golden Shield operates which employs AIs and about 30000 security police to monitor all internal Internet traffic for subversive content.

Business Insider has summarised a top 10 of Chinese security methods. This includes monitoring mobile phone photos and videos using facial recognition software,monitoring calls and online shopping, providing police with "Google Glass" type spectacles to recognise and flag up suspects in crowds, tracking social media posts and using AI to collate lists of potential threats to the State from the information collected.

The Chinese are now rolling out a "Social Credit", "shadow banning" system nationwide where people are ranked according to their employment, online, banking, social media and other activities and denied advancement and even credit if their score is low.  According to the Chinese State Council in 2014, the scheme should “allow the trustworthy to roam everywhere under heaven while making it hard for the discredited to take a single step.”

It is probably now impossible for any grass roots resistance to the Chinese system to grow or propagate.  The poor Chinese opposition forces have no hope: oppose the Chinese State and State Security will definitely find out, oppose the Chinese State a little and you will be a low paid clerk for the rest of your life, oppose it a lot and you will become a terrorist with the "appropriate" punishment.

We often hear that China will eventually become democratic as it becomes more prosperous and educated.  China is relatively prosperous and the population is becoming highly educated but the techniques of State control are so sophisticated that resistance is futile.

The control that we are seeing in China is a natural evolution from Maoism.  In the Maoist State the people were continually monitored and disciplined by officials in every part of society.  Now monitoring is happening but it is far more efficient and inescapable.  China is a clear example of how Maoism can change smoothly to National Socialism.  Indeed, National Socialism is nothing more than a prosperous far left, as all true democrats knew already.

Given the fact that China is a modern version of Nazi Germany but more dangerous we can only be astonished at the Western media's acceptance of what is happening.  If China wins the ideological battle in the world it will usher in a dark age for a millennium.

Military Strength

China increased its military spending in 2020 by 6.6%.  In 2019 China already had the world's highest military expenditure, allowing for the massive undervaluation of the Yuan (See OECD PPP value), Chinas military expenditure was $913 bn ($261 bn) compared with $732 bn for the US (unadjusted SIPRI figures in brackets).  The adjusted figures are correct because even the US is buying military components from China.  China is a mercantilist economy that is a global trading predator and has arranged for the Yuan to be worth far more inside China than the exchange rate might suggest (c.3.5 times undervalued).

According to the Rand Corporation China achieved parity with the USA in many areas of military combat in 2017.
In 2017 China had the military capability for a "draw" when invading Taiwan.  In 2021 China would probably win.  Most disturbingly China is rapidly increasing its ability to project power far from home.

China is investing heavily in nuclear weapons:

The best estimates are that China has 350 nuclear warheads in 2021. 350 are enough to deter an enemy such as the USA from escalating from a non-nuclear conflict to a nuclear conflict.

China is investing in hypersonic missile technology.  News sources such as the BBC have discussed these as potential nuclear delivery systems but it is far more likely that they are designed to take out naval forces, especially in the South China Sea. They can be launched from land  and may well obviate any naval intervention in a prospective invasion of Taiwan.

The key message to take away about China's military power in this decade is contained in the US Department of Defense report on China: "The  PLA  is  developing  capabilities  to  provide  options  for  the  PRC  to  dissuade,  deter,  or,  if ordered, defeat third-party intervention during a large-scale, theater campaign such as a Taiwan contingency."

The Chinese technological threat

As part of "anti-terrorism" legislation the Chinese government is requiring Chinese communications companies to hand over information to the security services (2017 Chinese Intelligence Law). In China the civilian sector is obliged to obey instructions from the military and security services (Article 28 Cybersecurity Law) and this has resulted in suppliers putting hardware "backdoors" in their products so that the security services can listen in to mobile and internet communications. This does not just apply to Huawei and ZTE who provide cheap smartphones and communication equipment, it also applies to a wide range of Chinese electronic products including computers and integrated circuits (ICs). 

These Chinese "hardware backdoors" or "hardware trojans" recently formed the substance of an article by Bloomberg Businessweek. The Bloomberg article covered minor modifications to circuit boards that allowed Chinese hackers to gain access to computers that had been supplied to the US Government, Apple and Amazon amongst others.  The "backdoors" found by the Bloomberg contacts, although tiny and almost impossible to find, were much more obvious than the hardware trojans that Chinese computer chip manufacturers will almost certainly be placing inside their products to comply with the law and military imperatives.

See Bloomberg Businessweek
The US Government has been aware of the problem of Chinese sourcing of computer components for at least a decade and the Obama Administration was also concerned about it. The US Defence Science Board produced a thorough report on the problem called Resilient Military Systems and the Advanced Cyber Threat 2013 which finds that modified integrated circuits (hardware trojans) are exceptionally difficult to detect and a huge risk.  The lack of detection of trojans in Chinese supplied microprocessors and integrated circuits does not mean that they are not there, it just means they cannot be detected.  This leaves the West in an impossible situation in which at least 70% of its computing and communications hardware contains key components produced in a country that has announced that it is including backdoors and other trojans for its security services in its products.  It also means that Western industries and defence forces are wide open to Chinese attack if conflict were to occur and may even in peacetime suffer attacks from apparently unknown sources if it suits the Chinese to shut down a Western Bank or company.

The Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative is a project that projects China's commercial and military presence globally.   Unlike other regimes, all Chinese industrial and commercial activity is accountable to the State.  Under the Military Civil Fusion strategy all commercial activities that are of use to the military can be controlled by the military. Under the 2017 National Intelligence Law all Chinese companies and citizens must support and cooperate in national intelligence work.  Australia now officially regards all Chinese businesses as agents of China.  Countries other than China have all used aid to further political aims but Belt and Road installs a permanent intelligence and control network wherever it is inserted.

The effectiveness of promises of Chinese aid and investment have even affected EU members.  Greece permitted China to buy Piraeus port and signed up to the Belt and Road Initiative in 2019.  As part of these negotiations Greece blocked EU condemnation of China's ethnic cleansing and genocide.

China Subverts the World

We cannot hope to deal with China unless we understand it and understand ourselves. The key to understanding China is that they are not cowed by Western power.  They do not see themselves as awaiting absorption into the post 1945 Western world order.  The rise of China is a shock for the West which imagined that once the Soviet Union had been dismantled it would just be a matter of time before the whole world adopted Western values.  To top it all Russia is now resurgent and the Islamic world shows no sign of yielding. The key to understanding ourselves is to realise that the West really did have all of the real power in the second half of the 20th century and could modify the economies and cultures of most other countries at will.  These days are over.  We are back to the 1930s and refuse to accept that opponents like China now have the resources to modify our economies and culture and are actively doing so.

What is it like to be back in the 1930s and unable to regard other countries as targets for cultural absorption into the "Western Empire"?  How do we deal with opponents who regard our culture and power as a menace?

The Chinese have a very keen sense of their own identity. The Chinese believe that the "Foreign Devils" (Gweilo in Cantonese) are  opponents of China.  In this they are correct.  Westerners do indeed hold views that are opposed to the Chinese State and culture.  What is surprising is that Westerners do not understand the Chinese view of the world.

The description given above is an honest account. Interestingly the article referenced above degenerates into how the Chinese can be taught to be civilised.  I have been to China several times and have seen Chinese racism at first hand.  It does not bother me, if you treat people with respect, including respect for their racism, you will get on fine.  This will deeply puzzle Westerners who have been trained to see racism as a deep spiritual and personal fault but if you respect the Chinese you will understand that all they are doing is asserting that they like being, and want to be, Chinese and want their country to be wholly Chinese.  They look at me and see that I embody everything non-Chinese from my skin colour to my arrogant belief in my way of life.  When I look at them I see an entirely different culture from my own.  If we respect each other and I re-assure them that I am not going to move to China we are all happy.

China is not inherently a nation of evil racists but it is a nation of racists.  There is no religious or philosophical injunction against independent peoples controlling an area of land that they have occupied for generations for their own benefit to the exclusion of outsiders.  It is when they practice ethnic cleansing and genocide that the serious evil happens. 

China is a proud nation state and the West is a failed project to subvert the world to Western values.  Now we understand where China and the West are coming from we can discuss how China will become dominant and what what will happen when it becomes dominant.

China has been operating a plan for global hegemony for at least two decades. The most obvious beginning was the development of nuclear weapons in 1964 but China was unable to back this up with economic growth until the economic policy changes of the 1990s.

In 2001 China made an astonishing breakthrough, it was elected as a member of the World Trade Organisation despite the fact that it obeyed few of the rules that govern international trade.  This has allowed China to build up a war chest of $3.2 trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves.   This is enough cash for the Chinese to seriously disrupt global trade, finance and industry.  The state controlled China Investment Corporation (CIC) has $941 bn of cash under management.(Wikipedia) and operates from offshore banking centres. The offshore companies have names such as Datten Investments Limited  (VG), Guildford Limited (VG), Honorich Holdings Limited  (VG), Kenco Investments Ltd (VG), Hero Investments Ltd (VG) etc.  The VG stands for British Virgin Islands (the tax haven where Richard Branson lives).  What these offshore companies are doing with the money is a mystery.  Major, declared Chinese investments are monitored by the China Global Investment Tracker.  Declared investments amount to over $2 trillion dollars.

However, the master stroke for the Chinese was  the "Talent Superpower Strategy" of the 17th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2007 in which Chinese academics were sent to the West to obtain skills and knowledge.  The academics were expected to join the United Front Work Department's (UFWD) "Western Returned Scholars Association".  The UFWD is a highly politicised overseas intelligence agency that ensured that the intellectual booty was returned to China.

The intimate knowledge of the West that studying and working there has given the Chinese provides them with a huge advantage.  They understand us but we do not understand them.  In particular, as nationalists, they can see clearly the nature of Western subversion against nation states and use it to their advantage.

What is most surprising is how China is controlling the Western media by easily diverting and suppressing news items to its own advantage.

There is no doubt at all that China is pursuing genocidal policies in Xinjiang against the Uyghurs but in July 2019 the West was soundly defeated 22 votes to 50 when it tried to bring this to the attention of the United Nations.  The practices of 1930s Germany are being repeated but no-one in the UN and few in the UK media are interested.

The Western mass media are colluding with China.  How many people have heard about what is happening in TibetBetween 15% and 33% of the Tibetan indigenous population has been placed in Labour camps.

Source: Sydney Morning Herald

China has been far more successful at condemning the USA for racism than the West has been in condemning China for genocide.  As the pressure around the ethnic cleansing and genocides in Xinjiang and Tibet increased China had a secret weapon, the Freedom Road Socialist Organisation and the Black Liberation Movement (BLM - reported by journalists as the Black Lives Matter movement).  Both of these are Maoist organisations dating from the cold war and largely supported by Black Americans.  These unleashed a highly successful campaign to advertise US racism to the world.

The US is scarcely more racist than the EU and racism is not genocide but the Western media ran with the US racism story and conveniently buried the Chinese genocide (and EU racism) story.

US Source: On the prevalence of racial discrimination in the United States , EU/UK source: Second European Union Minorities and Discrimination Survey: Being Black in the EU

The level of racism against black people in China is off the scale compared with other countries but there are no riots on Western streets about the biggest economic power in the world treating black people so badly.

China responds to the condemnation of its genocide by accusing the West of racism.  In November 2020 China was behind 120 countries giving the USA a roasting over its human rights record.  China’s deputy U.N. Ambassador Dai Bing said that the US Ambassador had “...admitted to her country’s ignoble human rights record, but that does not give her country the license to get on a high horse and tell other countries what to do.” (Reuters)

If you doubt that China is behind the ferocious condemnation of US racism in the media and behind the street protests then try to explain the asymmetry between the treatment of China, a genocidal, racist state and that of the UK, a near paragon of tolerance compared with other countries.  The UK is under perpetual attack for racism, even from its own media, whereas China is scarcely mentioned.

Taking the knee is a Maoist tradition Enforced in UK by the postmodern media. Those who object find themselves in deep trouble.

China has succeeded at diverting attention from its own genocide into condemnation of Western racism. To achieve this end they have had ample help from postmodernists and post-structuralists in the mass media.  However, this was not the only reason for stirring up the racism question.

What is happening is that China understands that the West has organisations devoted to dismantling national identities, from the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations to the Internationalist BBC and is helping to push their agenda as far as it will go.  This is almost comical because China and Russia know that without their agreement and the agreement of their increasing coterie of client states there will be no Western "world order", no global federation of 'nation states'.  The Chinese assume that the effect of encouraging this, now impossible, Internationalism will be to reduce the West to a disordered mess of states without identity or future.  As fanatical nationalists it is obvious to China that the way to power is to dismantle other nations from within by destroying their racial identity and they are happy to use Western Internationalists to further this end.  If we understand China and understand ourselves then it should be obvious to us what is happening.

China is not the first State to play the "race card" as a means of subverting the West.  It was central to Soviet subversion in the late 1960s when the Soviet Embassy issued packs to far left organisations that detailed how to create racial tension. The Russians and Chinese are fanatical nationalists and fully believe that diluting a nation's racial stock will destroy it.  What neither the Soviets nor the Chinese have understood is that the UK is a tolerant society and some of our migrant population and their children have become stalwart supporters of the UK and are a credit to all of us.  The only way migration will destroy the UK is through overpopulation, not racial conflict.  The issue is not so clear in the USA and EU.

The exacerbation of racial tensions in the West shows that China now has an enviable control over the global mass media.  This was also clearly demonstrated during the COVID pandemic.  The fact of the matter was that Wuhan had the world's leading coronavirus research centre. This centre had a large collection of coronaviruses as cultures that could escape from the laboratory and was also working on "gain of function" experiments to create new strains of the virus.  Another fact in the COVID story is that every city in China has wildlife markets that sell "game".  The chance that COVID originated from a wildlife market in the same city as the centre for coronavirus research is nearly zero. That a wild outbreak chose Wuhan is as likely as a blindfold man hitting a twenty on a dartboard after being rotated ten times. The chance of the wildlife market theory was reduced to zero after the Chinese Centre for Disease Control announced in May 2020 that the wildlife markets in Wuhan were NOT the source of the COVID pandemic (China Global Times 26th May 2020).

It was also the case that China has form for laboratory escapes and has accidentally released the SARS virus (a close relative of COVID) on several occasions. This led the WHO to issue the following warning about SARS collections in Chinese laboratories in 2003:

“The possibility that a SARS outbreak could occur following a laboratory accident is a risk of considerable importance, given the relatively large number of laboratories currently conducting research using the SARS-CoV or retaining specimens from SARS patients. These laboratories currently represent the greatest threat for renewed SARS-CoV transmission through accidental exposure associated with breaches in laboratory biosafety." WHO 2003

A group of scientists visiting the Wuhan labs in 2018 had even declared that: "the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic."...."During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, they noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory"  (Washington Post).

How did the Western mass media, who knew all this, react to the claim that COVID was a lab escape?  They declared that lab escape theories were "conspiracy theories" and that COVID could only have originated from wildlife markets. 

The truth about COVID is that France built a lab that was suitable for bioweapons development and dangerous virus research in Wuhan.  Western corporations, including the NIH & Dr Faucci, poured funds through EcoHealth Alliance into the Wuhan Institute of Virology to collect and create the most dangerous viruses possible.  Ecohealth was run by Peter Daszak. WIV was a civilian/military operation (now wholly military) so the scientists would hand over any viruses with weapons potential for military development.  Ultimately the naivety of Western governments towards Corporations and China is to blame. 

Fortunately for China the head of the WHO was their appointee, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.  This meant it was possible to set up an investigation team with Peter Daszak as a lead scientist who would conveniently announce that a lab escape was very unlikely.  Even the head of the WHO team, Ben Embarek, subsequently said that his team was put under pressure from China.

How did the mass media cover the WHO report? They stated that a laboratory escape was highly unlikely and the BBC led the pack.

China has also got serious control of scientific publications such as Nature and Science Magazine. Springer Nature asks "how high" if China says "jump!".  It has been caught out for allowing the Chinese government to censor content for political reasons in the past. In the case of Science Magazine China pays for huge amounts of advertising.  Both of these publications were leaders in condemning the COVID lab escape as a "conspiracy theory".

How does China do it?  Their control of the Western mass media is breathtaking and shocking.  It is probable that a trillion dollars in offshore tax havens buys a lot of hidden influence.

What next?

Can the West stand?  The West could easily stand against China if it were not for the fact that its mass media and academia are full of people who sympathise with the Chinese system and aid China's attacks on the West. It is likely that China will win. This will be a disaster for humanity.

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